Bitcoin has had a rough past couple of months and we've come full cycle now - Last November I made a video around $6k where Bitcoin wouldn't stop rising and now here we are in June with Bitcoin near $6k and it won't stop falling. Why does this happen? In short, the snowball effect or momentum.
One lesson passed onto me was that while technology always evolved, human nature does not. When we look at the price of Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency), we are peering into the general perception of Bitcoin. We are not looking at a graph based on fundamentals or how the technology has improved (e.g: Bitcoin reached its peak in December / January, when transaction fees averaged $40). With that in mind, what has changed?
Well for one, the catalysts that drove Bitcoin to $20k (e.g: hard fork excitement, futures, Wall Street adoption) have become "old" or nonexistent. When some hedge fund manager says he's bullish on Bitcoin, it's no longer the type of event that gets everyone riled up. When a smaller hard fork occurs, no one cares anymore. And the millionth time that the SEC suggests they don't want to regulate Bitcoin as a security, it probably won't spark as much interest either.
As price has headed down, people start to think more and more that Bitcoin was a fad. Keep in mind that many people only invested because they saw how many people saw Bitcoin as the "next big thing" or the "biggest innovation since the internet." But now all of a sudden, criticisms from big names like Warren Buffett start to feel like they are a lot more true. Even my YouTube channel has called Bitcoin a bubble since close to inception and now that claim seems "scarier" because price action has validated the idea more.
But doubt is not only coming from within the cryptocurrency industry. Stocks have had a difficult time gaining traction in 2018 since the top on January 26th and since then, we've seen sideways trading action. The past week has been difficult due to trade tensions with the EU due to Trump's isolationalist economic policies. Investors are starting to go more risk-off which has sent bond yields downward as investors flock to safe havens DESPITE the fact that central banks are trying to move away from low interest rates. This risk-off environment naturally goes against one of the riskiest asset classes out there, cryptocurrencies.
If you look at the viewership of websites dedicated to cryptocurrencies (which you can see on Similarweb.com), you'll find that most websites are only at a fraction of where they were before (Coindesk is estimated to be getting 25% of its peak monthly visitors). The same is true of all other types of media - Back at the peak, it was a "requirement" to report on Bitcoin daily. Now it's reported on far less frequently as the interest is no longer there.
For people looking from the outside, Bitcoin really does seem like it was nothing but a fad. And now that there is less bandwagoning, people are more open to saying that perhaps Bitcoin isn't as useful as cryptocurrency enthusiasts made it seem back in the months leading up to December. That makes attracting new money difficult now that Bitcoin has burned many people and the "word of mouth" isn't as kind as it used to be.
Will Bitcoin make a comeback? Well at the very least, it will almost certainly have a period of astronomical growth again - Cycles like this are common in markets governed by perception. It's impossible to say if it'll go back to $20k or when the cycle shift will be, which is part of why I've shifted to a buy & hold strategy as opposed to trading like I was back in November and December. And yes, I still think Bitcoin is a bubble.
A quick update on where I've been: No where special - Just tired of the cryptocurrency news cycle. I have never absorbed as much content on a daily basis as I did for cryptocurrencies and I only did it for the YouTube channel - it served almost no benefit to my investing (and one could argue it was detrimental as sometimes you get distracted by day to day stuff and miss the big picture). Eventually you get tired of hearing the SEC say the same thing about Bitcoin for the millionth time and everyone getting excited, or hearing what so & so said about Bitcoin or seeing people defend it / attack it blindly. Anyway, I doubt I'll go back to the multiple videos a week, but I am thinking about at least uploading once a week on Fridays perhaps. Hope you've all been well while I've been absent! Also check out my Twitter if you really want to stay up to date with me: www.twitter.com/Truth_Investor.
At 11:43, I meant August 1st. Explanation on where I've been at 14:46.
I'm still alive folks, whether you like it or not! Don't get too excited - I am not coming back to upload multiple times a week, although I am thinking of trying to upload at least once a week. If you want to stay up to date with me, I will be posting a bit more on Twitter (twitter.com/Truth_Investor) so I'm not totally M.I.A. Hope you all have been well in my absence! Also feel free to check out my Steemit if you want to support my content: steemit.com/@cryptovestor.
Hey CI, thanks for the video, we missed you. I completely understand how you can get burnt out on the news. It’s good to take a break one in awhile. So much of the “news” on Reddit is just people posting stuff that reinforces their views of where the market should be. It’s refreshing not to have to hear all the shilling, FUD, and fomo crap all the time, which is why I come to you!
I think if the stock market crashes so will crypto. When people are afraid they will go to cash, not put it into something even more speculative than stocks. Maybe in the future when there is a complete infrastructure for bitcoin that institutions can use and bitcoin actually has some significant adoption it will be used as a hedge but we are not even close yet.
One video a week would be nice. I’ll be looking out for you on twitter.
*Favorite comment* : "What ICO should I buy to make lots of money, I will read the white paper and research by watching cryptonick, JR garage, and craig grant and pay $500 for the bitcoin mastery course and not learn what a private key or the spread is. I have tons of money 50k (really they have like 800 bucks that they will foolishly go all in)". Like if you read the white paper and somehow even understand it you will know if the technology is good then make the assumption that this = good,= coins and = big returns. We learned very early on any shit coin could gain in value. So many people with no idea what they were doing (openly showing their coinigy screen and saying uhh I not sure exactly what that is" when it should be obvious, making videos with no series 7, not even read the book, let alone passed the exam, and have no money skills let alone investing which is a whole different animal. I made money but honestly it was 50% luck and I wish I had just held instead of trying to day trade even though I only made a few bad trades in the beginning. Learned a lot from this channel and would like to see what can be done now with bitcoin now that the price is stable. I never got on steam to talk to this guy tried to sign up couldn't .
Somebody promoting you on reddit comparing you to crypto Bobby got me here. Love the channel, you're intelligent in how you present things, I love it a lot. Things up, subscribe, bell notification on :)
very good analysis... interesting int about high risk assets .. however ... you also have "probably" a non correlated asset - BTC .. at least if you look at it as a fiat/crook banks alternative ... it is very true that when people have no money to invest.. it does not matter.. same as real estate crash ... could be really cheap.. but it is cheap because people have no money .. however I think we will still have a bubble before the next recession hits in 2019 ...
if not oct nov then anywhere feb-march ... Once the next BTC bubble pops it will be the starting sign for a new recession..
Great content as always. Thanks for keeping up with the posts despite crypros losing some popularity these last 6 months.
Request: cut video time down to 10 minutes? Yes, I watched the entire 18 minutes but damn, son. Still, great content.
Yadda-yadda-yadda, Bitcoin is a value store, value this, value that...
I use Bitcoin as Cash. I pay and accept it as I accept metal, paper and plastic money.
I payed when BTC was 200, I payed when it was at 19k.
What is _money_ ? Is whatever we accept as token for goods and services.
(I'm actually commenting at other comments)
Loving the content here ! very educational.
What are your thoughts about Particl ?
Simply put, it's a privacy based version of Ebay.
Sell or buy new or second hand stuff on a decentralized marketplace.
You can also earn interest by staking your Parts.
RingCT on mainnet is also a winner imo !
It is a shame that alts are so heavily linked to the price of Bitcoin as in reality there are so many that offer things that Bitcoin cannot such as privacy, eg Monero, Dash, DeepOnion. Ethereum with smart contracts and tokens. So many alts have cheaper fees and could in theory actually be used as currency which Bitcoin probably could not.
Guys, stop using past trendline to do prediction for the future! so many things had happended since then. Bans from Govt, more hacks, more crypto losers, more manipulation. How can one still find similarities in trendlines for prediction. Utter Rubbish!
Bitcoin as a store of value instead of currency/payment system doesnt make sens to you? You get rid of inflation. Plus, you can transfer wealth in an easy way, anywhere , kinda fast and low fees right? I mean bitcoin has utility. Personally, I use it to deposit on poker sites.
I'm going to teach you how useful bitcoin is right now in the comment section. Anyone that wants to hook me up send bitcoin to this address 1MVbYtebWTjn97dwFqKBAqijQUDRg6iQoJ
No bank needed, no filling out retarded forms at Western Union, you don't even need to know who the hell I am. That is pretty useful to me.
The information you’ve provided is very useful. If you follow the news cycle it’s difficult to take a reasonable perspective. If what you do is post a video every two months, the perspective you have is extremely relevant. In fact, I think it’s better to have less videos because the information contained within is more likely to be pertinent. Great work, hope to see another video in September.
1.Don't you think that you are calling for selling low?
Think about it.
Last time I heard from you, you were calling for the second run = had the same herd mentality as the majority of the market. (don't mean to offend you, I was even worse, I was HOPING for the second wave).
In my opinion, the next stage in Bitcoin price should be the accumulation phase before the next bull run. Don't know when though.
2.When the global uncertainty in the financial markets is on the rise, don't you think that Bitcoin can become a good hedge against all other markets.
It has exactly the right philosophy behind it. Screw bankers, politicians, debt and all other stuff. Also, it is perceived as a SoV.
Even as it is a riskier asset, adding Bitcoin to a portfolio decreases the overall risk of the PORTFOLIO according to the Harry Max Markowitz portfolio theory.
Good to have you back. Checked my youtube literally every morning. Don't watch other crypto youtubers.
I doubled my money on bitcoin cause when it started to tank really bad I removed my investment before I made a loss, coulda multiplied my investment by 4 or 5 times had I sold earlier, but my plan was to wait for one more pump before I took it out, which bit me in the ass but whatever I still profited. When I saw the market really start to drop down I wouldn't say I panicked, but I did think the bubble might be bursting and that remaining invested didn't seem like the right move, until I could see it was clearly coming back up to its previous heights, anyway.
I honestly think bitcoin will trend downwards/sideways slowly for some years to come at this point, based on previous trends. Eventually there will be another explosion but I don't think remaining invested is worth it currently.
as someone that brings a very balanced, behavior-driven approach to investing, you should really create content beyond just cryptocurrency, especially as interested wanes during this cycle.
commentary on other markets you are invested in, and content similar to understanding market psychology (e.x. your mental gymnastics video) would be great!
I've been hard on you a few times with my comments. I've said those things because I care. Your videos and the information you share are second to none. Glad to see you post a video. I follow you on Twitter too. Looking forward to future content regardless of the time in between posts. Cheers!
You, like everyone else, have no idea what will happen next. Negligible value in these videos. If people believe in the future of decentralized money and Dapps they should invest in some solid coins, HODL, and forget about the daily minutia.
Haha sorry I don't mean to laugh but for the last year and a half I've been saying bitcoin and most cryptos will either crash or be bought out by the large IMFs who have been tediously constructing their own blockchain for over a decade now and everyone who thought bitcoin was going to bring about the end of the banks was conned out of their money and gave free money and R&D to the bankers on how willing people are to invest and "hold on for dear life" to their digital fiat currency in some hopes it'd rise to the power level of the elite banks when in reality the banks will just own it or crash it to get rid of it when they roll out their own
but it is a great oportunity for those who came to cryptos to late to catch some cryptos, you have some interesting cryptos like iota cheaper that has a great potencial, be greedy when people are scared. but be greedy in the right way of course.
That's it, I sold. I'm free. I'm free form this fucking hell of scammers and pajeets. It was fun and games for a while, but now its just a cruel sick joke. I bought at 15k. No human can look at their money disappear before their very eyes and not be bothered. You know we're going to 3k, right? People in some countries can mine btc at that price, its going to fucking happen. You know it, I know it, lets all stop pretending that this is gonna be anything but a bear market until 2020.
mickel ans or maybe they just keep saying etf. Wall Street etc just to keep selling to you at high prices . It’s not that hard to pay off CNBC and make them taking about etfs and wall street as the whales sell on the way down
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